An analysis of EB-5 visa issuance and petition filings through January 2025 provides critical insights for prospective investors, particularly those considering rural and high-unemployment area (TEA) projects. Here’s a breakdown of the key data points:
1. Visa Issuance Remains Low Despite Availability
Although the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act (RIA) of 2022 allocated specific visa set-asides for rural (20%) and high-unemployment (10%) projects, actual visa issuance in these categories has been minimal. From FY2022 through early 2025, only hundreds of visas have been issued in these categories, despite thousands being available annually.
2. Significant Backlogs in Urban High-Unemployment Category
As of January 2025, USCIS data indicates that the urban high-unemployment category is experiencing a growing backlog. This backlog is particularly pronounced for investors from countries with high demand, such as China and India. Projections suggest wait times of 5–10 years for these applicants.
3. Rural Category Offers Shorter Wait Times
In contrast, the rural category remains underutilized. Investors choosing rural projects may experience shorter wait times, estimated at 2–3 years, due to lower demand and available visa allocations.
4. Processing Delays Contribute to Low Visa Issuance
The low number of issued visas is primarily due to processing delays at USCIS and the Department of State. Visa issuance is contingent upon the approval of I-956F project applications, which then allow for I-526E petition approvals, followed by visa interviews or I-485 processing. These delays have resulted in a backlog of pending petitions awaiting adjudication.
5. Early Filers May Benefit from Shorter Queues
Given the current state of visa issuance and processing, investors who file their I-526E petitions now, particularly in the rural category, may secure a place ahead of the anticipated surge in demand. As processing times improve and more projects receive approval, the number of approved petitions is expected to rise, potentially leading to longer wait times for later applicants.
Conclusion
The current EB-5 landscape presents a unique opportunity for investors, especially those from high-demand countries like China and India. By choosing rural projects and filing promptly, investors can take advantage of shorter wait times and available visa allocations before potential backlogs develop.
Attributions
This article references data and analysis from:
Lucid Professional Writing, “Progress of Rural and High Unemployment Visa Issuance Since 2022,” published May 27, 2025. Available at blog.lucidtext.com.
EB5AN, “New USCIS Data: Major Implications for Rural and Urban EB-5 Investor Applications,” published March 2, 2024. Available at eb5visainvestments.com.
