Since the introduction of visa set-asides under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022, rural projects have drawn significant attention from investors—particularly those from India and China seeking faster immigration timelines. For much of the past two years, rural filings offered clear advantages: current visa availability, priority processing, and eligibility for concurrent filing. But recent data suggest that those advantages may be narrowing.
An analysis of EB-5 visa issuance and petition filings through January 2025 highlights several key trends:
1. Visa Issuance Remains Low Despite Availability
Thousands of rural and high-unemployment (TEA) visas have been available annually since 2022. Yet only a few hundred have been issued. This is largely due to processing delays at USCIS and the Department of State—not a lack of demand.
2. Urban High-Unemployment Backlogs Are Clear
Urban high-unemployment filings have surged, particularly from high-demand countries. Projected wait times for new investors in this category now range from 5 to 10 years.
3. Rural Filings Had Offered a Shorter Path
Because rural filings remained low through much of 2022 and 2023, visa availability held steady. Investors who filed early secured spots ahead of any backlog. For many, this meant shorter estimated wait times and access to concurrent filing benefits.
4. But Rural Demand Has Risen Sharply
According to recent analysis from Suzanne Lazicki, new projections show that rural and high-unemployment wait times for India and China are now converging. The shift is attributed to a significant uptick in rural petition filings, reducing the availability advantage that category once offered. For Indian and Chinese nationals filing today, rural may no longer provide meaningfully shorter timelines.
5. Processing Delays Still Define the Queue
Despite rising rural demand, USCIS’s limited adjudication output continues to suppress actual visa issuance. This lag has temporarily preserved visa availability in rural—but as approvals accelerate, the queue will begin to reflect real demand.
Conclusion
For investors who filed early in the rural category, the timing advantage was real. But for those filing now—especially from India or China—the benefits may be diminishing. The rural window is closing, and in some cases, it may already have closed. Visa availability remains current for now, and concurrent filing is still possible, but investors should act with awareness of the latest projections, not outdated assumptions.
